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标题: Brisbane房价下跌 [打印本页]

作者: KevinHu 时间: 2010-10-30 17:29
标题: Brisbane房价下跌
由于移民的减少和市场供过于求，brisbane的house均价下跌1.7%

Price slump: how low can Brisbane go?

Brisbane's property market woes look set to continue for the forseeable future due a slump in migration and an oversupply in the market.
Analysts have tipped prices to remain stagnant or dip further at least until the middle of next year.
A report released today showed house prices in the city have continued to slide, with unit prices among the cheapest in the country.
According to the Australian Property Monitors September House Price Report, the median unit price in Brisbane tumbled 5.3 per cent, while in Sydney and Melbourne it increased 7.3 per cent and 10.9 per cent respectively in the year to September.Advertisement: Story continues below

Meanwhile, the median house price in Brisbane also fell 1.7 per cent to $450,726 - the largest fall of all the major capitals.
Fears of an undersupply in the market rose with the Queensland population boom three years ago, but analysts say the opposite is now taking place.
Chief among the reasons for the downturn in Brisbane has been the fall in immigration to the Sunshine State and the subsequent oversupply in the housing market, APM head researcher Yvonne Chan said.
"Early in the year we had higher prices that may have slowed migration from NSW to Queensland and we are now seeing that have an effect on prices," she said.
However, the city is no buyer's paradise after the end of the first home owners boost and rising interest rates.
"It's a bit of a Catch-22 situation," Ms Chan said. "Despite the softening market, affordability is a concern given that we have had six rate rises since October last year. And there may be more to come."
Property analyst Michael Matusik has long refuted claims of an undersupply in the owner-occupier and rental markets.
"Queensland's population growth is slowing - and significantly," he said.
The state's net migration in 2008 was 84,275 people, with 21,228 arriving from interstate.
At the end of March this year, net migration fell to 55,845, with just 11,012 people coming from interstate.
"Our preliminary estimates suggest that more people are leaving Queensland now than arriving from interstate [due to the state economic downturn]," Mr Matusik said.
Of the rental market he said: "The amount of vacant stock available is not only greater than most realise, but it is getting larger."
Mr Matusik said about 13,500 new rental properties were required to house 35,000 new residents to Queensland last year.
"Yet, 33,000 new rental digs became available - or over twice as many as was needed," he said.
"This is not how I would define 'undersupply'."
The latest figures contradict earlier reports from leading economists pointing to a shortfall in new housing.
Queensland is building one new home for every 4.3 new residents.
BIS Shrapnel senior economist Angie Zigomanis said figures indicating an undersupply reflected serious affordability issues.
He added that houses in Brisbane were overvalued.
"In an ideal market - if people who should be buying houses now could afford to do so - there would be an undersupply," he said.
"As it is, more people are living with family and friends, because of affordability issues."
Ben Crossan of CSA Valuers agreed Brisbane property prices were still inflated, saying the market was at the beginning of a long "correction path".
"Properties in southeast Queensland are anywhere between 20 and 25 per cent overvalued," he said.
While the market was still in an "expensive period", Mr Matusik last week predicted the real return on property over the next three to five years was likely to be negative.
"As a result, houses will once again be somewhere to live, not vehicles for speculation," he said.
Mr Crossan urged would-be home buyers to "wait and see".
"You will not miss the boat," he said.
"You might have better purchasing power in 12 months time. Keep saving - cash is king.
"It is your first property purchase that you can ill afford to overpay for."
Another property analysis, from RP Data and Rismark, will be released tomorrow.

作者: Jamesching 时间: 2010-10-31 17:13
我是真的没感觉出来降了……

作者: KevinHu 时间: 2010-10-31 22:24
回复 2# Jamesching

这个是均价下跌，并不反映各个区的情况，尤其不反映华人区的情况，例如sunnybank hills, 今年到目前为止，均价上涨了12.5%，达到了$545,492。

作者: danny01 时间: 2010-11-1 19:52
靠！华人区啥时候也不会人少

作者: Mike 时间: 2010-11-1 20:49
本帖最后由 KevinHu 于 2010-11-1 21:20 编辑

华人区很多人是用現金買, OR 借很少錢 (<50%) 所以加息影響不大.

現在要買便宜房子要到FOREST LAKE那邊去

forest lake不错，适合家庭~

作者: KevinHu 时间: 2010-11-1 21:16

靠！华人区啥时候也不会人少
danny01 发表于 2010-11-1 19:52

这个也和价值观有关系，华人可以为了买房节衣缩食，老外一般不会这么做。

作者: KevinHu 时间: 2010-11-1 21:21

华人区很多人是用現金買, OR 借很少錢 (
Mike 发表于 2010-11-1 20:49

forestlake不错，适合家庭居住

作者: AirMartin 时间: 2010-11-1 21:22
回复 5# Mike

那个地方太乱，而且貌似有白蚁出没。。
所以还是建议一些地方LIKE MACENZINE，那些地方比较不错

作者: AirMartin 时间: 2010-11-1 21:26
总体在降，但是一些地方还是很高。。。。

作者: danny01 时间: 2010-11-2 09:30

作者: Mike 时间: 2010-11-2 20:07
FOREST LAKE 我個人覺得不算乱,我晚上去過朋友FOREST LAKE的家, 4周都沒什麼人
INALA, WOODRIDGE 就真的很乱
FOREST LAKE 就是太遠, 所以平, 人門價 370K 左右

MACKENZIE 是一流好區, 旺中帯靜去SUNNYBANK, GARDER CITY, CARINDALE, CAPALABA 都很快
可是價錢比較高, 人門價 550K 左右

作者: alice 时间: 2010-11-2 22:21
daisy hill算好区吗？

作者: meimei36 时间: 2010-11-2 23:10
回复 12# alice

恩，很不错~

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